Motley Fool analyst Jose Najarro predicts AI stocks NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) will close 2026 above their January 1, 2026 prices due to sustained AI infrastructure demand. He issued the forecast on April 11, 2026.
On April 11, 2026, NVDA traded at $138 USD, down from $145 USD on January 1, 2026. AMD closed at $158 USD, below $165 USD on January 1, 2026. The CNN Fear & Greed Index stood at 15, signaling extreme fear, per CNN Business data.
AI Demand Fuels Data Center Expansion
Najarro highlights surging data center investments as the core driver. Amazon Web Services (AWS) plans $100 billion USD in capital expenditures for 2026, according to company filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 10, 2026. NVIDIA dominates AI graphics processing unit (GPU) supply to these facilities, holding a leading position.
AMD's MI300 series accelerators capture growing market share. The company reported 122% year-over-year data center revenue growth to $3.7 billion USD in Q1 2026 earnings on May 1, 2026. Partnerships with Microsoft Azure have accelerated sales, AMD CEO Lisa Su stated in the earnings call.
The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.2% on April 11, 2026, per Nasdaq data. Technology shares faced broad selling pressure despite underlying AI sector optimism.
NVIDIA Maintains GPU Dominance
NVIDIA reported $28.1 billion USD in revenue for Q1 fiscal 2027, ending April 28, 2026, a 262% increase year-over-year, per company filings. The new Blackwell platform began shipping in March 2026. Data center products generated 90% of total sales, NVIDIA Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress noted.
Gartner Inc. estimates NVIDIA commands 80% of the AI chip market as of Q1 2026. Competitors including Amazon Web Services and Alphabet Inc.'s Google develop custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). Najarro sets a $180 USD price target for NVDA by December 31, 2026.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang described AI as "the next industrial revolution" during the Q1 earnings call on May 22, 2026.
AMD Advances in Inference Capabilities
AMD plans to launch the MI325X accelerator in mid-2026. Motley Fool analysis claims it delivers 40% better inference performance than NVIDIA's H100 GPU. Data center sales reached $3.7 billion USD in Q1 2026, up sharply from prior periods.
AMD forecasts 80% full-year data center revenue growth for 2026, per Q1 guidance. CEO Lisa Su emphasized the open-source ROCm software stack as a counter to NVIDIA's proprietary CUDA platform during the earnings call.
Najarro assigns a $190 USD year-end target to AMD shares.
Broader Economic Support for AI Growth
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 2.8% in Q1 2026, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data released April 25, 2026. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projects $1 trillion USD in cumulative AI infrastructure spending by 2028, per a research note dated April 8, 2026.
A Gartner survey of 1,200 enterprises found 55% have deployed AI models in production environments as of March 2026. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% following the April 30, 2026, Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted technology investments as a growth driver in post-meeting remarks.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose to 28 on April 11, 2026, reflecting heightened market uncertainty, per Cboe Global Markets data.
Supply Chain and Valuation Risks
NVIDIA relies heavily on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) for production. AMD sources from GlobalFoundries Inc. and others. Geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan pose supply disruption risks, as noted in a U.S. Department of Defense report on April 15, 2026.
NVDA trades at 50 times forward earnings estimates. AMD's multiple stands at 45 times, according to Yahoo Finance data as of April 11, 2026. JPMorgan Chase & Co. assigns a 25% probability to a U.S. recession by year-end, per analyst note dated April 10, 2026.
FactSet data shows 42 of 45 analysts rate NVDA a buy. For AMD, 35 of 40 analysts recommend buy ratings as of April 11, 2026.
Investor Positioning and Catalysts
Motley Fool estimates 25% upside potential for both AI stocks by December 31, 2026. NVIDIA reports Q2 earnings on May 28, 2026. The firm accurately called NVDA reaching $50 USD in 2023 from lower levels.
Morningstar Inc. reports pension funds have allocated 15% of portfolios to AI stocks as of Q1 2026. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) hold significant positions in both NVDA and AMD. Broader AI adoption spans finance, healthcare, and manufacturing sectors, per IDC research published April 9, 2026.